Venezuela2012

Aug
8
2011
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In Case You Missed It…Venezuelan Opposition’s Increasing Unity spells problems for Chavez

Venezuelan Opposition’s Increasing Unity Spells Problems for Chavez

By Joel D. Hirst
The Commentator
August 6, 2011

Last week, in a show of increasing political unity, Venezuela’s opposition parties – grouped under the umbrella “Table for Democratic Unity” (MUD for its acronym in Spanish) — made an important step forward. They announced that they would go to the next presidential election with a “unitary card”.

Traditionally, each party has selected its candidate for the presidential elections before complex negotiations take place to present unitary candidates. This has often made the ballot large and unwieldy and given the feeling of a “splintering” of the opposition or the government.

President Chavez tried to address this problem with his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) – but has recently backtracked and called for a “Patriotic Pole” again. In response, the MUD has, for this election, agreed to create a unity platform – whereby all the parties come together under one new banner.

For many in the opposition, this was very difficult; it requires them to surrender their political party for the good of the opposition as a whole.  For example, Governor of Miranda, Henrique Capriles Radonski — should he win the primary – would have to confront President Chavez under this new coalition banner and not “Primero Justicia”; a party to which Capriles has been very faithful and has helped to build from nothing into the powerful national force it is today.

And so, coming on the heels of a unanimous decision to head to opposition primaries, it seems that the Venezuelan opposition is headed in the right direction.

This does not mean that the elections of 2012 will be easy; President Chavez will undoubtedly seek to mobilise all the tools in his not unsubstantial arsenal to swing elections in his favour.

First, the socialist leader has a track record of using the resources of the state for elections. In 2009, for example, for the referendum on indefinite re-election, he drew down $12 Billion from the foreign reserves which he spent on that campaign. He also uses the fear factor, telling Venezuelan civil servants (an amazing five million in number) that he will know if they vote against him. And there are supposedly one million fake names on the voter registration lists which are impossible to audit because the government refuses to release the addresses of the voters to international auditors on the grounds of “privacy”.

Most importantly though, the revolutionary government uses an obscure administrative procedure called “disabling” to remove popular opposition figures from the field. This is done via the country’s Inspector General’s office, there called the “Controller”.

The Controller targets leaders and opens administrative investigations on a partisan basis – ruling that this or that official has been “disabled” due to administrative findings. Not only is this a hindrance to the opposition, but it directly violates the Venezuelan constitution, which states that the only people forbidden from participating in the electoral process are those convicted in a court of law for a crime.

Using this process, the government silenced the popular former Chacao Mayor, Leopoldo Lopez. Lopez took his case to the Inter-American Human Rights Court in Costa Rica – where a ruling is pending in August — and has decided to participate in the MUD’s primary elections, in the hope that a victory there would force the Venezuelan government to remove his “disabling”.

The government has also threatened to open an administrative investigation into Governor Radonski — who has led in the opposition’s primary polls.  There are more than 400 other Venezuelan’s who have been illegally removed from the electoral process.

The Venezuelan opposition continues to make important steps toward unity. Apparently having learned the lessons of past disasters, they have agreed to set aside differences in order to seek to win power in the beleaguered nation.

For President Chavez – whose energy is sapped by his fight against cancer and whose ministers, apparently fearing loss of power, have allegedly evacuated $10 billion to foreign accounts – this is not good news.

Whatever happens in 2012, the results will be pivotal for the future of Venezuela; with repercussions not only in that country but across the hemisphere, including for the United States.

The international community should watch the process closely – not only on election day but for the entire election period.

Joel D. Hirst is an International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC. He tweets at @joelhirst

 
Jul
22
2011
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In Case You Missed It… Articles Roundup Week of 7/22/11

In this week’s roundup… The Chávez administration moved forward with the new Law of Costs, Prices and Salary Protection. It is likely to fuel more product shortages and inflation in Venezuela. After an unsuccessful attempt to persecute presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, the Venezuelan courts dropped their investigation.  Koch Industries filed an arbitration claim with the World Bank seeking compensation for the expropriation by the Venezuelan government in 2010 of one of its companies; Chavez continues to receive treatment in Cuba as his global appeal dwindles; and in Venezuela, crime and unemployment continue to hurt the average citizen.

Venezuela to oversee product prices, limit profits, Reuters

Government claims measure meant to control inflation, ensure “fair” prices. Critics say rules may fuel product shortages. Venezuela is creating a new agency to limit profit margins for companies operating in areas such as food and medicine, the vice president said on Monday, in the latest effort to boost state control over the economy.

Venezuela’s Docs Flee—So Does Chávez, The Wall Street Journal

It’s no coincidence that the president has returned to Cuba for medical attention.

If we are to believe Hugo Chávez, doctors have removed a cancerous tumor the size of a baseball from somewhere inside his body.

Election Official Says Venezuelan Courts Targeting Chavez Rivals, NASDAQ via Dow Jones Newswires

An electoral official in Venezuela said Wednesday that criminal investigations against possible challengers to President Hugo Chavez’s re-election bid suggest “a strategy of the government to choose who will be his opponent in the presidential elections.”

Venezuela court drops complaint against Chavez foe, San Francisco Chronicle via AP

Venezuela’s Supreme Court annulled a corruption complaint against a leading opponent of President Hugo Chavez on Tuesday.

World Bank to hear Koch arbitration against Venezuela, Reuters

Chavez nationalized Koch fertilizer plant in 2010. Multiple Venezuela arbitration cases outstanding. The World Bank will hear an arbitration case requested by U.S. Company Koch Industries after Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez nationalized a fertilizer plant it owned with the OPEC nation’s state oil firm.

In Cuba, a Prayer for Chávez, The Wall Street Journal

Castro Regime’s Survival Depends Greatly on Ill Venezuelan Leader’s Largess

Venezuela’s ailing President Hugo Chávez says he is praying to Jesus Christ, the Blessed Virgin and the spirits of the Venezuelan savannah to help him beat his cancer.

Analysis: Cancer may further dim Chavez’s global influence, Reuters

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s public battle with cancer has added to his global fame but it may also weaken his already waning influence in Latin America and beyond.

Unemployment rate up to 8.6%, El Universal

No matter the hike, INE President Elías Eljuri points to “effective performance” in the labor market

Unemployment rate stood at 8.6% in June 2011, based the monthly report on workforce prepared by the Venezuelan National Statistics Institute (INE

Venezuela town — home to Chávez, home to crime, Miami Herald

Oscar Pineda keeps a wary eye on the rearview mirror as he pulls up to a coffee shop. He steps inside, spots two policemen, and rushes back to his car — one of the few places he feels safe talking.For the past three years, Pineda has been engaged in a controversial activity in this agricultural town: tracking crime.

 
Jul
14
2011
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After Chávez, the Deluge

DSC 0754 150x150 After Chávez, the Deluge

José R. Cárdenas served in several foreign policy positions during the George W. Bush administration (2004-2009), including on the National Security Council staff.  He is a consultant with Vision Americas in Washington, DC.

Hugo Chávez has finally divulged he is being treated for cancer, but — in typical secretive fashion — offered no significant details as to the prescribed treatment, or just what impact his medical condition will have on his ability to govern Venezuela. He has hinted at potentially needing chemotherapy, a treatment which will necessarily debilitate his ability to govern, and perhaps campaign for Venezuela’s 2012 presidential election.

Due to Chávez’s authoritarian nature, this translates into a power vacuum that has to be filled — who does so will determine Venezuela’s foreseeable future. The situation is compounded by the fact that Chávez has left his would-be successor a veritable time-bomb of growing domestic woes.

The fact that the Venezuelan strongman has presided over a faction-ridden regime is hardly surprising, given that his government is bereft of institutions and power is wielded arbitrarily. Those competing for power within Chavismo are not Boy Scouts but hardliners that can be counted on to act more like Mafia dons at war than accountable public officials managing a democratic succession.  (Remember, there are billions of dollars up for grabs here.)

The faction best positioned to govern in Chávez’s stead appears to be made up of those trusted by the Castro regime, which itself has an interest in keeping its economic lifeline alive and well. They include Vice President Elías Jaua and Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro, both colorless but loyal apparatchiks to Chávez and Castro. Also in this group is Chávez’s older brother Adán, a former Venezuelan ambassador to Cuba with close ties to the Castro regime. Adán is charisma-challenged, but has the right bloodlines.

Backing this faction will be a rogues’ gallery of international stakeholders that have profited immensely from Chávez’s largesse over the years. They will advocate for maintaining the status quo — with or without Chávez — through the 2012 elections.  These include Russia, China, Iran, and, of course, Cuba, not to mention the ALBA countries that benefit from Venezuela’s petrodollars.

Another faction revolves around former Chavista officials who, for one reason or other, were removed from office by Chávez and would certainly be interested in regaining a measure of power with all its perks and privileges. They include National Assemblyman Diosdado Cabello (former Vice President), José Vicente Rangel (former Vice President), and Jesse Chacón (former Minister of the Presidency). These individuals, however, are not trusted by the Cubans because of their independent thinking. How the status quo faction deals with these individuals will define a post-Chávez Venezuela.  Will they once again be allowed a cut of the action, or will they continue to be marginalized?  If it’s the latter, hold on to your seats.

While the Cabello faction maintains strong ties to the military, the wild cards in this situation could be Minister of Defense General Henry Rangel Silva and Chief of Military Intelligence Hugo Carvajal. Both are Chavistas to the core but need to maintain low political profiles due to having been sanctioned by the United States for facilitating narcotics trafficking through Venezuela. That said, make no mistake about it, they both wield enough behind-the-scenes power to make or break Chávez’s successor.

What’s important to remember amidst all this cut-throat palace intrigue playing out over the next weeks and months in Venezuela is the increasing ungovernability of the country. In short, Chávez has left a mess. From the region’s highest inflation rate and electricity rationing to rising street crime and unsustainable spending programs, the current state of affairs in Venezuela is more than any consolidated government could handle, let alone one trying to piece itself together in the wake of such a polarizing leader as Hugo Chávez.

It is hard to tell what direction the Chavista rollercoaster will take next, but whatever it is, only one thing is certain – it is going to be a bumpy ride.