José R. Cárdenas served in several foreign policy positions during the George W. Bush administration (2004-2009), including on the National Security Council staff. He is a consultant with Vision Americas in Washington, DC.
Hugo Chávez’s ongoing confiscations of foreign-owned property in Venezuela (another one here) are all part of a carefully constructed narrative that seeks to portray the Venezuelan caudillo as the final defender of Venezuela’s sovereignty. Under this myth – central to Chavismo – is the notion that, prior to Chávez’s rise to power, evil foreign interests had systematically plundered Venezuela of its natural riches, absconded with the profits, and left the Venezuelan masses in continued destitution.
Chávez, of course, has avenged that historical injustice by ensuring that, from now on, “the people” would be the primary beneficiaries of the national patrimony. Of course, the irony is that today Chávez has merely swapped out one set of alleged “exploiters” of Venezuela’s riches for another. Multinationals such as ExxonMobil may be gone, but into the breach has stepped the governments of China, Russia, Cuba, and other ideologically like-minded actors that are taking swings at the Venezuelan piñata.
The lopsided economic agreements that Chávez has signed with these governments are not only mortgaging the country’s future, but vastly increasing the leverage these foreign governments have in Venezuela’s internal affairs.
Take China, for example. As Chávez re-orients trade away from the United States, he is accepting staggering amounts in loans from China. To be exact, we are talking about $32 billion going into a “heavy investment fund,” $20.6 billion to facilitate the purchase of Chinese goods and services, and a commitment of $40 billion to invest in the Venezuelan oil sector. The loans, not surprisingly, are to be repaid with oil. But as China expert Evan Ellis points out, “the loan agreements…use a below-market reference price for the oil delivered, making the value of the goods that Venezuela must pay back far greater than the quantity loaned.” Indeed, in a Wikileaked cable, a PDVSA official complained to a U.S. diplomat that in some cases, China had paid as low as $5 a barrel to Venezuela and was suspected of reselling the product on the spot market for a hefty profit.
Russia, another Chávez ally, has roped him into signing multi-billion loan agreements to purchase Russian arms that no one else wants and that give Russia preferential access to lucrative Venezuela oil concessions.
Moreover, a recently leaked report from the Economic Social Development Bank of Venezuela (BANDES) details how Chávez has spent more than $1.5 billion in three years in giveaways to Cuba and other allies, stating that the funds cannot be properly accounted for because Cuban officials decide how the money is used and whether it is booked as loans or grants.
So, aside from exposing Chávez’s hypocrisy as a defender of Venezuelan sovereignty, why does it matter if his government is being taken to the cleaners by China, Russia, and Cuba? Why should we care that these countries have been given free rein in Venezuela? Well, to start, China and Russia matter as strategic competitors of the United States; their efforts to establish such a strong foothold in an important oil-producing country in the Western Hemisphere should very much concern U.S. policymakers. Moreover, in the short term, their infusions of desperately needed hard currency to Chávez’s coffers strengthen the anti-American leader’s regime and allow him to continue funding his anti-American agenda and re-election campaign.
Over the longer term, the fact that Chávez may be terminally ill does not alter the equation. These countries have made enormous investments in Venezuela and they certainly can be counted on to act to protect those investments. They recognize that a post-Chávez government may not honor such unfavorable economic arrangements. Thus, they are especially well-positioned in Venezuela today to inordinately influence events if Chávez’s health takes a turn for the worse.
In Cuba’s case, the Castro brothers may be economic paupers, but they are rich in the dark arts of repression, eliminating opponents, and consolidating power. It’s no secret that thousands of Cubans are in Venezuela posted in various ministries advising Chávez on the best tactics to undercut the opposition. Losing Caracas as an economic pipeline represents an existential threat to the Cuban regime. Therefore, Havana will exert every effort to ensure that Chávez or a like-minded replacement stays in office.
Since his rise to power, Hugo Chávez has wrapped himself in the Venezuela flag, but the reality is he has outsourced the country’s future to Beijing, Moscow, and Havana. Simón Bolívar must be turning in his grave. The U.S. government, for its part, needs to recognize the stakes involved in this matter and get active diplomatically to ensure that Venezuela’s future is decided by the Venezuelans and Venezuelans only.