Courtesy of: Reuters
In Venezuela, the significance of events during the last several weeks cannot be overstated. After promising the Venezuelan people that he was “totally free” of the abdominal cancer that plagued him for more than a year, Hugo Chávez won re-election on October 7. Two months later, however, a visibly weak Chávez announced that his cancer had returned. He was rushed to Cuba for surgery on December 11; reports later surfaced that he had suffered serious “complications” after his fourth operation in 18 months.
Before leaving the country, Chávez designated newly-named Vice President Nicolas Maduro as his successor. According to Venezuela’s constitution, if a president dies or is unable to serve, a new election must be called within 30 days. A pallid Chávez, speaking on December 8th at the presidential palace, asked Venezuela to “elect Nicolás Maduro” if a special election occurs.
Though the special election requirement seems unambiguous, any transition of power is likely to be protracted and – because to several confusing provisions in Venezuela’s constitution – perhaps quite contentious. Chávez is due to be re-inaugurated on January 10th. As Foreign Policy explained this week, Chávez’s inability to be sworn in will pose significant problems for his party and thereby, the future of his self-styled socialist revolution:
“The problem for Maduro is that his term as vice president expires January 10th, when the current presidential term ends and a new one begins. Chávez, who is also president-elect, may not be healthy enough to be sworn in and appoint him vice president again. If that doesn’t happen, Maduro will be out of a job, even though he would remain the ruling party candidate in any follow-up election.”
If Chávez misses his inauguration, National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello would then assume control of the government until the President is finally sworn in or declared by the Assembly to be “totally absent.” Such a declaration, however, is unlikely to occur unless the President actually dies. Indeed, some of his socialist allies have suggested postponing the inauguration to accommodate Chávez’s health – a constitutionally dubious step that has drawn criticism from opposition leaders.
Even within the ruling socialist party there are divisions. Maduro and Cabello have emerged as the figureheads in a behind-the-scenes battle over the future of the party. Already faced with a slumping economy, a much-needed currency devaluation and a cancer-stricken president, Venezuelans may well have a full-blown constitutional crisis on their hands to start 2013.
If recent reports are to be believed, the country draws ever closer to such a scenario. Multiple outlets report that Chávez, his immune system ravaged by the cancer, suffered a severe respiratory infection following his most recent surgery. News also emerged that the infection was so serious it prevented Chávez from breathing, requiring doctors to perform a tracheotomy. Last month, Maduro sped to Havana to speak with the ailing president, sparking rumors that Chávez was on his deathbed.
For their part, members of the Venezuelan opposition have demanded the government tell ‘the whole truth’ about the president’s health. So far, the information released has lacked much needed specifics to determine the likelihood of Chávez’s survival.
For Venezuelans seeking clarification from the president himself, it may be a long wait. Chávez has not been seen or heard from since his statement nearly a month ago on December 8th. And this week, a source inside the Cuban hospital claimed that Chávez has been put in an induced coma, is “only kept alive by life support,” or may have even died. Chávez’s end may indeed be near, but we can be sure this is only the first chapter of a critical period for the future of Venezuelan’s government.