The Economist
February 23, 2013
By Fabiola Sanchez and Ian James

Courtesy of: AFP

Ten weeks after flying to Cuba for his fourth cancer operation since June 2011, President Hugo Chávez returned to Venezuela in the early hours of February 18th. But the manner of his arrival suggested that he remains far too ill to govern. Only his closest aides, including a medical team, were on hand. Even senior cabinet members and leaders of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) were kept in the dark. The president was taken to a military hospital, and installed in a tightly guarded ninth-floor ward reserved for senior officers. No images of his return were made available, but the party organised “spontaneous” demonstrations of joy on the part of his supporters once the news had been announced on the president’s Twitter account.

Since leaving Caracas for Havana on December 10th Mr Chávez, who has ruled his country in a hyperactive fashion for 14 years, has been neither seen nor heard. In a series of vaguely worded official communiqués, the government admitted that a severe post-operative lung infection left him with breathing difficulties. On February 15th it belatedly presented a “proof of life”, in the form of several photographs of the president with his eldest daughters, holding a copy of the Cuban government newspaper Granma from the previous day. But the photos (one of them is above) raised more questions than they answered. An accompanying statement said Mr Chávez is barely able to speak, thanks to a tracheotomy to ease his breathing (no tube was visible in the photos).

Despite all this, officials continue to insist that the president is in day-to-day control of the administration. They said, for example, that he had authorised a 32% devaluation of the currency, the bolívar, announced on February 8th, the eve of the Carnival holiday, when most Venezuelans are thinking about the beach. The president’s return has also served to distract attention temporarily from the deteriorating economy.

Nicolás Maduro, the vice-president, is to all intents and purposes running the country, but vehemently denies that he is the acting president. Mr Chávez’s return will at least obviate the need for ministers to make frequent visits to Havana for bedside consultations. Those visits fuelled speculation that instructions were being imparted by Cuba’s communist leaders, rather than by Mr Chávez. The homecoming cut short a growing protest against Cuban interference staged by students outside the island’s embassy in Caracas.

But in other ways Venezuela remains in the constitutional limbo that began on January 10th. That was the date on which Mr Chávez should have been sworn in for his fourth consecutive term after an election on October 7th. The supreme court, which Mr Chávez has turned into an appendage of the executive, ruled that as a re-elected president he could be sworn in whenever his doctors deemed him fit enough. More controversially still, they extended indefinitely the tenure of the existing cabinet, including the unelected Mr Maduro, whom Mr Chávez before his operation had anointed as his chosen successor. The court thus brushed aside constitutional stipulations concerning the president-elect’s incapacitation, which include the appointment of a medical board to determine his fitness for office.

Nevertheless, Mr Chávez’s return to Caracas makes possible his swearing-in, which is likely to be administered by a delegation from the court in private, rather than before the National Assembly. That in turn would give constitutional legitimacy to Mr Maduro’s role as vice-president (which technically lapsed on January 10th). But the government seems in no immediate hurry to take this step, perhaps because of the gravity of the president’s condition, including his speech impairment. Mr Chávez “will be sworn in when he’s good and healthy,” said Aristóbulo Istúriz, a state governor and leading PSUV member. The opposition Democratic Unity alliance is wondering aloud whether a man who is not fit enough to be sworn in can be considered fit enough to run the country.

Few but the president’s most fervent supporters believe he will recover sufficiently to serve his six-year term of office. Mr Chávez’s son-in-law, Jorge Arreaza, who is also the science minister, referred last week to “palliative treatments”, which suggested that the president has come home to die.

Foreign diplomats in close touch with the regime expect a fresh presidential election by June at the latest. This would almost certainly pit Mr Maduro against the opposition’s Henrique Capriles, who lost to Mr Chávez in October. The president’s death, his resignation or other “permanent absence” would, according to the constitution, trigger an election within 30 days. But the supreme court is skilled in creative interpretation of the constitution so as to suit the government’s cause.

Some analysts suggested that the devaluation, which is bound to spark an increase in inflation (already at 20% a year), was a sign that the regime had ruled out an early election. Rather, it may be an indication of the gravity of Venezuela’s economic plight. Wild spending ahead of the October election and the economy’s mismanagement pushed the fiscal deficit to 8.5% of GDP last year. Several staple goods are in short supply and the Central Bank’s liquid reserves are down to about $4.5 billion. In the illegal black market, the dollar buys 23 bolívares, compared with the new official rate of 6.3.

One indication that an election may come soon is that government newspapers have begun to publicise polls which suggest that Mr Maduro would easily beat Mr Capriles in a vote. Mr Maduro himself has been engaged in an undeclared campaign for some time: he blamed the devaluation and shortages on speculation and sabotage by what remains of Venezuela’s battered private sector. Some in the opposition coalition want to name their candidate so as to be ready for a snap election. Barring a miraculous recovery by Mr Chávez, Venezuelans may soon be going to the polls again.

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