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Jan
18
2013
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In Case You Missed It… Articles Roundup Week of 1/18/13

 

628x471 In Case You Missed It… Articles Roundup Week of 1/18/13

Courtesy of: Associated Press

This week: Venezuelan Vice-President Nicolás Maduro travels to Cuba to meet ailing President Hugo Chávez, who has not been seen or heard in public for over five weeks; Maduro and other powerful Venezuelan officials meet with the Castro regime in Havana, angering Venezuela’s opposition; Brazil urges Venezuela’s government to follow the constitution and hold elections if Chávez dies; and the Venezuelan government uses accusations of hoarding and price speculation to deflect blame for shortages and their failed economic policy. Maduro delivers short state-of-nation address amid Chávez’s absence, sparking legal debates about his legitimacy; Chávez’s absence and the surprise appearance of his signature on an official decree sparks doubts and questions; and Venezuela’s opposition leader Henrique Capriles demands proof that Chávez is still alive and in charge of the country. Lastly, human rights groups condemn government crackdown against Globovisión, Venezuela’s only TV channel critical of Chávez; Moody’s Investors Service changes Venezuela’s outlook to negative because of increased political uncertainty; and a divided military is expected to play the role of central power broker between the government and Venezuela’s opposition.

Venezuela’s Maduro Arrives in Cuba to Visit Ailing Chavez, Bloomberg

Venezuelan Vice President Nicolas Maduro arrived in Havana today to visit President Hugo Chavez, who hasn’t been seen in public for a month since going to the Caribbean island for a fourth cancer operation.

Meeting in Cuba Angers Venezuelan Opposition, New York Times

With the president absent and ailing, the country on edge and the government eager to portray a sturdy sense of continuity, there might be nothing unusual about the most powerful officials in Venezuela meeting over the weekend, except for the location they chose for the sit-down: Havana.

Exclusive: Brazil wants Venezuela election if Chavez dies – sources, Reuters

Brazil is urging Venezuela’s government to hold elections as quickly as possible if President Hugo Chavez dies, senior officials told Reuters on Monday, a major intervention by Latin America’s regional powerhouse that could help ensure a smoother leadership transition in Caracas.

Venezuela cracking down on businesses accused of hoarding food amid sporadic shortages, Associated Press

Mireya Bustamante spent most of the day trying in vain to find flour to bake a birthday cake for her 4-year-old son. Like most Venezuelans, the single, 33-year-old officer worker has periodically struggled with such food shortages for years, and, like many in the country, thinks they’re getting worse.

Venezuelan vice president delivers short state-of-nation address amid Chavez’s absence, Associated Press

Venezuelan Vice President Nicolas Maduro took the place of the country’s ailing president Tuesday by delivering a short state-of-the-nation address amid legal debate about his legitimacy. Maduro submitted the report in writing from ailing President Hugo Chavez, who is receiving treatment in Cuba after undergoing his fourth cancer surgery.

Critics Question Chávez Signature on an Official Decree, New York Times

A tempest in an ink pot has broken out over the signature of President Hugo Chávez, which suddenly appeared on a government decree this week despite his long absence from the country.

Chávez Opponent Asks For Proof Leader is Alive, Wall Street Journal

Venezuela’s opposition leader Henrique Capriles on Wednesday demanded that ailing President Hugo Chávez prove that he is still alive and in charge of his country.

Rights Groups Condemn Crackdown on Venezuela TV, Associated Press

Rights groups are condemning an order by Venezuela’s broadcast agency for a television channel to stop showing clips that question the legality of postponing President Hugo Chavez’s inauguration.

Moody’s changes Venezuela’s rating outlook to negative, Moody’s

Moody’s Investors Service today changed Venezuela’s outlook to negative from stable and affirmed the B1 local currency and B2 foreign currency government bond ratings.

Venezuela military to play central power broker, Associated Press

In a country riven by political strife, Venezuela’s military often has served as the arbiter of power. It has launched coups and frustrated them and dispatched soldiers to guarantee stability, distributing food, fighting crime and securing oil fields.

 
Jan
7
2013
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ICYMI: Venezuela’s endgame approaches

Washington Post
January 5, 2013
By Editorial Board

A Venezuelan government statement Thursday said that President Hugo Chavez, who has been secreted inside a Cuban hospital since undergoing surgery on Dec. 11, was facing “complications” from “a severe lung infection.” As has been the case throughout his nearly two-year bout with cancer, details of the strongman’s condition, treatment and prognosis are unavailable. But Venezuelans are bracing themselves for the death of the caudillo who has ruled them — and wrecked their once-prosperous country — over the past 13 years. The United States and its Latin American allies need to prepare, as well.

Mr. Chavez’s critical condition arrived at a critical moment: He is due to be sworn in next Thursday for another six-year term in office. Having won reelection in October after assuring Venezuelans that he was fully cured, the president disappeared soon afterward; in his last appearance before departing for Cuba, he appointed foreign minister Nicolas Maduro as his vice president and political successor. If Mr. Chavez is too ill to attend his inauguration, authorities are saying, they will simply delay it — a stretch of the constitution’s ambiguous wording. But when and if he dies, the constitution is clear: A new election for president should be held within 30 days.

That will be a critical test of Venezuela’s post-Chavez direction. The ruler’s inner circle, which has been gathering around him in Cuba, may consider postponing the election or even calling it off. Their fear — and that of the Castro regime in Cuba — is that a fair vote would be won by opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who lost the October presidential ballot but is more popular than Mr. Maduro. Mr. Maduro is Cuba’s candidate, the successor most likely to ensure continued deliveries of the heavily subsidized Venezuelan oil that is keeping the Communist regime afloat.

That’s why the first responsibility of the United States and Venezuelan neighbors such as Brazil should be to insist that the presidential election be held and that it be free and fair. The State Department rightly made that demand public on Thursday, following recent private contacts between officials of the two governments. The administration should be prepared to respond quickly if Mr. Chavez’s followers or military leaders — some of whom are under U.S. sanction for drug trafficking — attempt a coup.

Whoever succeeds Mr. Chavez will face a catastrophic economic situation. To win reelection, Mr. Chavez spent wildly last year, increasing the budget deficit to 20 percent of gross domestic product; his successor will be forced to order a sharp and painful devaluation. That will only worsen already high inflation and shortages of staple foods. When poor Venezuelans realize that lavish pre-election promises of new apartments and appliances won’t be delivered, anger toward the new leader may swell.

Sadly, the economic pain caused by Mr. Chavez could, after his death, help create a political movement that will revere his memory. Forty years after the death of Juan Peron, Peronism still haunts and holds back Argentina. If Venezuela is to escape a similar curse, Mr. Chavez’s successors will have to balance economic stabilization against the need to build a political system where democracy, and not autocratic populism, can thrive.

To read this article on the Washington Post, please click here.

 
Jul
12
2012
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Hugo Chávez, golpista

jose r cardenas Hugo Chávez, golpista

José R. Cárdenas

José R. Cárdenas served in several foreign policy positions during the George W. Bush administration (2004-2009), including on the National Security Council staff. He is a consultant with Vision Americas in Washington, DC.

Hugo Chávez’s penchant for labeling anyone who disagrees with him a “golpista” (coup-mongerer) is well-established. This, despite his own history of leading an ill-fated military coup in 1992 against former Venezuelan President Carlos Andres Pérez. But it seems the years since haven’t diminished his ardor for military coups when it suits his purposes — a fact affirmed by recent events in Paraguay.

Paraguay recently saw the sudden impeachment of President Fernando Lugo for “poor performance.” Whatever one thinks of that drastic action, it happened to be consistent with the country’s constitution.

Yet events in Paraguay apparently didn’t pass muster with Hugo Chávez, who ordered his foreign minister, Nicolas Maduro to meet with Paraguay’s military leadership to try and convince them to intervene and forcibly restore President Lugo to office. (In this effort, Maduro, who was in the country as part of a Unasur delegation monitoring the impeachment, was accompanied by Ecuador’s ambassador to Paraguay, who represents another government that routinely identifies opposition as golpistas.)

Infuriated by the meeting, the Paraguayan government withdrew its ambassador from Caracas, citing “the grave evidence of intervention by Venezuelan officials in the internal affairs of Paraguay.” It also ordered a shake-up of the military brass, with new President Federico Franco stating, “We will not tolerate military officers who want to become insubordinate or accept the recommendations of foreign countries.”

On a continent with a long, tortuous history of military involvement in politics, Paraguay stands out. It was not until 1989 that the 35-year reign of General Alfredo Stroessner ended. As a result, there is great sensitivity towards the matter in the country and is why a senior foreign official meeting with the military to encourage their intervention in Paraguayan politics constitutes an outrageously reckless act that threatens not only the internal stability of the country, but has wider regional implications as well.

Yet not only has the regional silence been deafening on Maduro’s meeting, but countries like Brazil and Argentina turned around and effectively rewarded Chávez by granting Venezuela full-membership in Mercosur, the political and economic pact among Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. This fulfilled a key foreign policy objective of Chávez for years that had previously been blocked, ironically, by the Paraguayan Congress. But with Paraguay suspended from the customs union because of the Lugo impeachment, Brazil and Argentina moved instantly to grant Chávez membership. It’s not that Mercosur will bring Venezuela any measurable economic benefits, but to Chávez it is one more key symbol of the legitimacy of his political project and one more instance of Venezuela’s integration with Latin American countries in a union that excludes the United States.

As Brazilian diplomat and former Mercosur representative José Botafogo Goncalves told the Brazilian newspaper O Globo, “Venezuela doesn’t meet the basic requirements to enter Mercosur. Venezuela’s problem is Chávez, who doesn’t like free trade and wants to transform the bloc into a political platform.”

But degrading their own multilateral institutions is one thing; Chávez’s encouraging a military coup in Paraguay is quite another. Lamentably, the continued regional indulgence of Hugo Chávez’s provocations appears to know no bounds. Apparently, there is no action he can take, no matter how reckless or interventionist, that will bring rebuke. Instead, he is rewarded. It is indeed a sad commentary on the current state of Latin American regional leadership.