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Jun
11
2012
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What’s Next Venezuela Election Update: June 11, 2012

23 1 647x396 What’s Next Venezuela Election Update: June 11, 2012

Courtesy of: Getty Images

By the end of the day today, both Hugo Chávez and Henrique Capriles will both be officially registered as candidates in the Venezuelan presidential elections. Capriles completed his registration on Sunday and, in a display of the candidate’s vitality, led thousands of supporters on a march through the capital. Chávez has scheduled his registration for today, after weeks of speculation about whether he would do it in person. Capriles has continued his casa a casa campaign, and his trademark shirts have caught on amongst his supporters. Because of his illness Chávez has been unable to hit the campaign trail, and, as a result, his party has struggled without him. Dan Rather’s recent report on Chávez’s worsening health restarted discussions about the president’s possible successors. Controversy has already begun, as politicians accuse pollsters of rigging their results. The opposition has also denounced a recent court decision which will prevent two parties from supporting Capriles. Venezuelans in Miami will have trouble casting their votes, as the government has decided not to open a polling station in Florida for the elections.

Venezuela opposition floods streets in support of presidential candidate, The Miami Herald

In an impressive show of force that closed down much of the capital and overflowed the central plaza with supporters, Venezuelan presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, 39, registered his candidacy on Sunday.

Chavez to launch Venezuela candidacy in person, Reuters

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez will personally go to register his candidacy for the October 7 election on Monday, officials said, dampening rumors he might be too unwell from cancer or considering a successor.

In Venezuela, casual shirts worn by opposition’s presidential candidate a boon for seamstress, The Washington Post

In a home with bare brick walls and a zinc roof, a 58-year-old seamstress with short, curly hair is sewing shirts for a young politician who she thinks has a good shot at unseating Hugo Chavez as president of Venezuela.

“Virtual” Chavez campaigns for re-election in Venezuela, Reuters

Hugo Chavez’s voice booms out from loudspeakers singing the Venezuelan national anthem. A life-sized puppet of the socialist president dances on stage.

A report by Dan Rather fires up the Caracas rumor mill, Foreign Policy

The news hit Venezuela’s gossip-sphere with a thud: According to “a highly respected source close to Chávez who is in a position to know his medical condition and history,” Hugo Chávez’s cancer has now “entered the end stage.”

Venezuela ‘poll wars’ rage as presidential race heats up, Reuters

Venezuelan politicians are accusing pollsters of rigging surveys ahead of President Hugo Chavez’s October re-election bid, threatening to make the polarized South American nation’s campaign even nastier.

Venezuela court decisions shake up 2 small parties, Chavez rival denounces ‘judicial tricks’, The Washington Post

Venezuela’s Supreme Court has issued decisions shaking up the leadership of two small political parties, apparently preventing them from backing opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles.

Venezuela Won’t Open Miami Voting Center For Elections, Businessweek

Venezuela’s National Electoral Council decided not to open a voting center in Miami for presidential elections Oct. 7, forcing voters registered in the U.S. Southeast to travel about 670 miles (1,072 kilometers) to New Orleans.

 
Jun
11
2012
Posted by
admin
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What’s Next Venezuela Election Update: June 11, 2012

23 1 647x396 What’s Next Venezuela Election Update: June 11, 2012
Courtesy of: Getty Images

By the end of the day today, both Hugo Chávez and Henrique Capriles will both be officially registered as candidates in the Venezuelan presidential elections. Capriles completed his registration on Sunday and, in a display of the candidate’s vitality, led thousands of supporters on a march through the capital. Chávez has scheduled his registration for today, after weeks of speculation about whether he would do it in person. Capriles has continued his casa a casa campaign, and his trademark shirts have caught on amongst his supporters. Because of his illness Chávez has been unable to hit the campaign trail, and, as a result, his party has struggled without him. Dan Rather’s recent report on Chávez’s worsening health restarted discussions about the president’s possible successors. Controversy has already begun, as politicians accuse pollsters of rigging their results. The opposition has also denounced a recent court decision which will prevent two parties from supporting Capriles. Venezuelans in Miami will have trouble casting their votes, as the government has decided not to open a polling station in Florida for the elections.

Venezuela opposition floods streets in support of presidential candidate, The Miami Herald

In an impressive show of force that closed down much of the capital and overflowed the central plaza with supporters, Venezuelan presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, 39, registered his candidacy on Sunday.

Chavez to launch Venezuela candidacy in person, Reuters

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez will personally go to register his candidacy for the October 7 election on Monday, officials said, dampening rumors he might be too unwell from cancer or considering a successor.

In Venezuela, casual shirts worn by opposition’s presidential candidate a boon for seamstress, The Washington Post

In a home with bare brick walls and a zinc roof, a 58-year-old seamstress with short, curly hair is sewing shirts for a young politician who she thinks has a good shot at unseating Hugo Chavez as president of Venezuela.

“Virtual” Chavez campaigns for re-election in Venezuela, Reuters

Hugo Chavez’s voice booms out from loudspeakers singing the Venezuelan national anthem. A life-sized puppet of the socialist president dances on stage.

A report by Dan Rather fires up the Caracas rumor mill, Foreign Policy

The news hit Venezuela’s gossip-sphere with a thud: According to “a highly respected source close to Chávez who is in a position to know his medical condition and history,” Hugo Chávez’s cancer has now “entered the end stage.”

Venezuela ‘poll wars’ rage as presidential race heats up, Reuters

Venezuelan politicians are accusing pollsters of rigging surveys ahead of President Hugo Chavez’s October re-election bid, threatening to make the polarized South American nation’s campaign even nastier.

Venezuela court decisions shake up 2 small parties, Chavez rival denounces ‘judicial tricks’, The Washington Post

Venezuela’s Supreme Court has issued decisions shaking up the leadership of two small political parties, apparently preventing them from backing opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles.

Venezuela Won’t Open Miami Voting Center For Elections, Businessweek

Venezuela’s National Electoral Council decided not to open a voting center in Miami for presidential elections Oct. 7, forcing voters registered in the U.S. Southeast to travel about 670 miles (1,072 kilometers) to New Orleans.

 
Feb
8
2012
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Setting the Record Straight on Venezuela’s Voter Turnout

screenshot1 147x150 Setting the Record Straight on Venezuela’s Voter TurnoutWhat’s Next Venezuela is proud to welcome Joel D. Hirst as our newest contributor. Currently, Hirst is a Human Freedom Fellow at the George W. Bush Institute, and a Principal for Cordoba Group International. Formerly, Hirst was a Fellow in Residence at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, DC. He also served as a U.S. Agency for International Development Country Representative in Uganda (2008-2010) and Acting Country Representative and Deputy Country Representative in Venezuela (2004-2008). He tweets at www.twitter.com/joelhirst.

This Sunday, February 12th, the Venezuelan opposition – led by the Table for Democratic Unity (MUD for its acronym in Spanish) – is going to the polls to choose the candidate who will face Venezuela’s authoritarian regime in the already less-than free and fair elections of October 7, 2012.

President Hugo Chávez seems to be concerned. He has already gone out of his way on various occasions to say that the primaries are an “imperial strategy”; that he “does not care who wins” and that voter participation will be very low. Over this last point, Chávez and his proxy – newly appointed National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello – have been particularly insistent.

For this reason, it is particularly important to set the record straight on voter turnout in primary elections. In the recent Republican primary vote in New Hampshire, voter turnout was approximately 245,000.  Taken from an estimated total of 990,000 eligible voters, this represents 25% of the electorate. In Florida, the voter turnout during the recent primary election was 1.6 million. Total voter registration in Florida is 11.1 million, making this turnout roughly 14% of the total. South Carolina turnout was roughly 590,000; with a total of registered voters at roughly 2.5 million, the turnout in the state registers at 23%. Naturally, I have left off the caucus states because that process is significantly different than a simple vote.

Voter turnout in the United States is generally lower than in Venezuela. However, Venezuela has never carried out a primary election before; so there is no historical precedent upon which to judge the result. In 2008, Venezuela’s electoral registry had 16.3 million people. This means that if Venezuelan turnout followed Florida, a good showing would be 2.2 million voters. Should the turnout follow the pattern of South Carolina, it would be 3.7 million votes.

Given the threats that President Chávez has been making against the opposition, and the voter intimidation of the more than five million people who depend directly on the government for their well-being, if the Venezuelan opposition sees a turnout of two million, it would be well within the norm. This is roughly the number that independent pollsters have been predicting.

Nevertheless, whatever the result, President Chávez will attempt to disparage it as insignificant. Mr. Chávez should remember that in the 2009 internal elections of his own party – the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) – just over 500,000 voters participated. All of a sudden, two million is looking pretty good.