Tag Archives: poll

Oct
5
2012
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Survey Gives Edge to Chávez Opponent

The Wall Street Journal
October 5, 2012
By Kejal Vyas

OB UW131 1005ve G 20121005141618 Survey Gives Edge to Chávez Opponent

Courtesy of: Reuters

CARACAS—Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles has extended his lead over President Hugo Chávez in the latest survey released just days ahead of the hotly contested vote.

Venezuelans head to voting stations this Sunday in a race that is proving to be Mr. Chávez’s greatest challenge after nearly 14 years in office. The president has promised a deepening of his statist policies if he wins another six-year term. However, his campaign was slowed down over the past year as he battled an undisclosed type of cancer, which Mr. Chávez says he has overcome.

The survey conducted by local private pollster Consultores 21 found the challenger increasing his support to 51.8% while Mr. Chávez declined to 47.2%, according to Saul Cabrera, director of the firm. The survey was conducted as a vote simulation between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2 using 1,546 respondents. It had a margin of error of 2.5%.

Earlier this week, Mr. Cabrera said that his firm didn’t use telephone surveys because they found respondents hesitant to answer questions on political affiliation to unknown people. He said those surveys typically found the number of undecided voters shoot up past 20%.

Mr. Capriles, a 40-year-old energetic state governor, has embarked on an aggressive nationwide “house by house” tour since winning the opposition primaries in February. The center-left candidate has pledged to keep many of the social programs that Mr. Chávez spearheaded but says he wants to run them more efficiently and sees a greater role for the private sector in Venezuela’s economy.

Both candidates officially ended their campaigns on Thursday. Mr. Chávez delivered his final appeal to voters during a rain-soaked gathering of thousands of red-clad government supporters who filled the streets of downtown Caracas. Meanwhile, Mr. Capriles capped off his campaign with speeches in three western Venezuelan states.

Though Consultores 21 is one of only two pollsters calling for a close race, most surveys have shown Mr. Capriles closing the gap in recent months.

Venezuelan electoral laws prohibit the publication of polls in the week ahead of elections but Mr. Cabrera said their privately commissioned survey was made available only to clients.

Consultores 21′s last poll published in September had recorded Mr. Capriles leading with 48.9% while 45.7% supported Mr. Chávez. That survey was conducted using a secret ballot and gave Mr. Capriles a wider lead than a separate poll conducted by the firm using open questions, which showed the contender holding a one point advantage.

Venezuela’s political arena remains highly polarized and some critics have challenged the validity of polls.

Write to Kejal Vyas at [email protected]

To read this article on The Wall Street Journal, please click here.

 
Oct
5
2012
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ICYMI: Survey Gives Edge to Chávez Opponent

The Wall Street Journal
October 5, 2012
By Kejal Vyas

OB UW131 1005ve G 20121005141618 ICYMI: Survey Gives Edge to Chávez Opponent

Courtesy of: Reuters

CARACAS—Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles has extended his lead over President Hugo Chávez in the latest survey released just days ahead of the hotly contested vote.

Venezuelans head to voting stations this Sunday in a race that is proving to be Mr. Chávez’s greatest challenge after nearly 14 years in office. The president has promised a deepening of his statist policies if he wins another six-year term. However, his campaign was slowed down over the past year as he battled an undisclosed type of cancer, which Mr. Chávez says he has overcome.

The survey conducted by local private pollster Consultores 21 found the challenger increasing his support to 51.8% while Mr. Chávez declined to 47.2%, according to Saul Cabrera, director of the firm. The survey was conducted as a vote simulation between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2 using 1,546 respondents. It had a margin of error of 2.5%.

Earlier this week, Mr. Cabrera said that his firm didn’t use telephone surveys because they found respondents hesitant to answer questions on political affiliation to unknown people. He said those surveys typically found the number of undecided voters shoot up past 20%.

Mr. Capriles, a 40-year-old energetic state governor, has embarked on an aggressive nationwide “house by house” tour since winning the opposition primaries in February. The center-left candidate has pledged to keep many of the social programs that Mr. Chávez spearheaded but says he wants to run them more efficiently and sees a greater role for the private sector in Venezuela’s economy.

Both candidates officially ended their campaigns on Thursday. Mr. Chávez delivered his final appeal to voters during a rain-soaked gathering of thousands of red-clad government supporters who filled the streets of downtown Caracas. Meanwhile, Mr. Capriles capped off his campaign with speeches in three western Venezuelan states.

Though Consultores 21 is one of only two pollsters calling for a close race, most surveys have shown Mr. Capriles closing the gap in recent months.

Venezuelan electoral laws prohibit the publication of polls in the week ahead of elections but Mr. Cabrera said their privately commissioned survey was made available only to clients.

Consultores 21′s last poll published in September had recorded Mr. Capriles leading with 48.9% while 45.7% supported Mr. Chávez. That survey was conducted using a secret ballot and gave Mr. Capriles a wider lead than a separate poll conducted by the firm using open questions, which showed the contender holding a one point advantage.

Venezuela’s political arena remains highly polarized and some critics have challenged the validity of polls.

Write to Kejal Vyas at [email protected]

To read this article on The Wall Street Journal, please click here.

 
Aug
24
2012
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Chavez Trails Rival Capriles for First Time in Poll

Bloomberg Businessweek
August 24, 2012
Charlie Devereux

data Chavez Trails Rival Capriles for First Time in Poll

Courtesy of: Eduardo Mayorca / AFP / GettyImages

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez trailed opponent Henrique Capriles Radonski for the first time in a Consultores 21 poll ahead of elections in October.

Capriles had 47.7 percent of support against 45.9 percent for Chavez in a poll taken last week, Consultores 21 Vice President Saul Cabrera said today in a phone interview. The survey of 1,000 people had a margin or error of 3.2 percentage points, he said.

Chavez, who is seeking to extend his 13 years in power with another six-year term, has a lead in most other polls. The self- declared socialist’s advantage narrowed to 12.5 points in a Datanalisis poll in August from 15.3 percentage points in June.

“Chavez has hit his ceiling because after 14 years when he’s become well-known it wouldn’t appear he can grow much more than that,” Cabrera said. “On the other hand I can’t see Capriles growing much more because all the indicators are that this is going to be a close race.”

Capriles, a 40-year-old former governor of Miranda state, has visited more than 150 towns across the country, emulating a strategy employed by Chavez when he first gained power in a December 1998 election.

Energetic Walks

Capriles has sought to mark a contrast with Chavez, who is recovering from an undisclosed form of cancer, by his energetic walks through rural villages of Venezuela. He’s also attempted to win over state employees and the military by releasing video messages in which he said they shouldn’t be persecuted for their political beliefs and should be paid more.

Chavez has preferred to stage large rallies and caravans through selected towns of the country to rally support.

Chavez said yesterday during a campaign rally in the eastern city of Cumana that he expects to beat Capriles with 70 percent of the vote in a “knockout.” Chavez said that Capriles, whom he calls the “loser” and “little bourgeoisie,” is traveling the country for the first time visiting towns as a tourist in contrast to the “million” Venezuelan towns that the self-declared revolutionary has visited during his life.

Chavez, 58, increased government spending 34 percent in the first half of 2012 from a year ago and is promoting social programs for the elderly and children in extreme poverty. The surge in spending and a 17.6 percent expansion in the construction industry in the second quarter helped the economy grow 5.4 percent from a year earlier.

Chavez said July 9 that opinion polls showing a technical tie with Capriles are “a joke,” without specifically referring to Consultores 21.

A poll taken between June 15 and June 26 showed the president with 45.9 percent support against 45.8 percent for Capriles. The Caracas-based pollster correctly predicted that Chavez’s opponents would win a slender majority in the popular vote in legislative elections in September 2010.

To read this article on Bloomberg Businessweek, please click here.