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Jun
25
2012
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What’s Next Venezuela Election Update: June 25, 2012

capriles abc 644x362 What’s Next Venezuela Election Update: June 25, 2012

Courtesy of: Reuters

A week before the official start of the campaign, both candidates express confidence that they will win the October 7 vote. Henrique Capriles believes his “house by house” campaign will win over enough votes to secure a victory. Chávez rejects Capriles’s request for a public debate. He gives no reason why, and instead insults Capriles, calling him a “non-entity.” .Capriles criticizes Chávez for Venezuela’s rampant crime and violence, which has increased significantly during his time as president. Chávez, secluded in his palace of Miraflores, trumpets a new government plan to combat violence, conveniently timed to coincide with the elections.

Despite polls, Venezuela opposition sees Chavez upset Chicago Tribune

Venezuela’s opposition shrugged off opinion polls showing President Hugo Chavez in the lead before October’s election and said on Wednesday its candidate Henrique Capriles would win thanks to a tireless “house-by-house” campaign.

Capriles confident of win over Venezuela’s Chávez, AFP

Henrique Capriles, the presidential candidate for Venezuela’s unified opposition, says he is confident he will defeat incumbent Hugo Chavez in October, predicting a 10-point margin of victory.

Chavez predicts big win in Venezuela election  Chicago Tribune

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez forecast he would win October’s election with more than 60 percent of the vote after a new poll showed on Tuesday he held a large lead over his opposition rival.

Can Capriles really defeat Chávez? El Universal

This is the question that Venezuelans have most frequently been asking themselves these days. In whatever conversation or daily analysis after praising or criticizing the “dull candidate (the way President Chávez calls his challenger Henrique Capriles),” a doubt inevitably surfaces: “But…do you really think that he can beat Chávez?”

Venezuela’s Chavez rejects poll debate, irking rival Reuters

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez ruled out on Monday holding a pre-election debate with opponent Henrique Capriles, saying he would be “ashamed” to measure himself against such a “non-entity.”

Capriles to Chávez: Get out of the presidential palace and see slaughter El Universal

Cedeño Avenue in northern-central Carabobo state fell short in view of the crowd that poured into it to listen to the speech of opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski during the “Hurricane of Progress.”

Capriles Radonski: We cannot let violence prevail for six more years El Universal

The quiet peace of Tucacas, the capital of the José Laurencio Silva municipality, in northwestern Falcón state, was interrupted on Thursday because of the “Great March of Progress,” where the townspeople joined in and walked alongside opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski in a 1.3 mile march on the Democracia and 5 de Julio avenues.

Chavez Launches Security Plan Less Than 4 Months Before Elections, Fox News Latino

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez launched a new “great mission” to counter Venezuela’s soaring violence rate less than four months ahead of the elections in which he is seeking another six-year term.

 
Jun
20
2012
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Despite polls, Venezuela opposition sees Chavez upset

The Chicago Tribune via Reuters
Andrew Cawthorne
June 20, 2012

70566458 Despite polls, Venezuela opposition sees Chavez upset

Courtesy of: Reuters / Miraflores Press

CARACAS (Reuters) – Venezuela’s opposition shrugged off opinion polls showing President Hugo Chavez in the lead before October’s election and said on Wednesday its candidate Henrique Capriles would win thanks to a tireless “house-by-house” campaign.

The 39-year-old state governor has been criss-crossing Venezuela for months, often stopping several times a day to go into homes, walk the streets and give speeches in a strategy designed to build grassroots support.

Limited by his year-long fight against cancer, Chavez, 57, is only occasionally appearing in public. But in recent weeks he has returned to addressing Venezuelans frequently on TV, sometimes via so-called “chain” broadcasts that local channels are obliged to carry.

Most of the latest surveys by Venezuela’s main pollsters give Chavez a lead of more than 15 percentage points ahead of the October 7 presidential ballot, and the socialist stalwart is predicting a landslide win with 60 percent of the vote.

But Capriles’ campaign manager, Armando Briquet, told Reuters the evidence on the street and in private surveys available to the opposition showed a very different picture.

“Right now, things are level and there are signs lately that the balance is tipping in our favor,” he said.

“We are going to win. We have no doubt.”

Capriles’ camp was buoyed by a turnout of hundreds of thousands when he formally registered his candidacy in Caracas earlier this month. But Chavez supporters also turned up en masse when the president formalized his candidacy the following day. The events boosted both campaigns.

The stakes are high not only for Venezuela, a nation of 29 million people with the largest oil reserves in the world, but for the wider region. Leftist allies such as Cuba and Nicaragua depend on Chavez’s oil-financed largesse towards them.

Though staying generally quiet, Washington is watching closely to see whether its No. 1 irritant in the region wins re-election or exits the political stage after more than a decade of baiting and bashing U.S. officials.

CHAVEZ OUT OF TOUCH?

Briquet said Capriles’ street campaign – which he has dubbed “house-by-house” and involves walking into countless front rooms day after day for informal chats – was successfully showing the different models on offer to Venezuela.

“People are seeing a president who is abusing power via TV ‘chains’ because he has no way of going onto the street. He has forgotten the people,” he said. “We have a candidate who is in the street … We’re replacing the monologue with a dialogue.”

Capriles’ supporters were unable to watch a private TV broadcast of a major rally in the Western state of Zulia last week because Chavez blocked the airwaves with a long-winded discussion of Venezuela’s economy.

Capriles is projecting an image of youth and energy, and promising to follow Brazil’s much-praised model of balancing free enterprise with social welfare programs.

Chavez, though, remains popular due to his personal charisma and welfare “missions” providing free healthcare and education, plus subsidized food, in city slums and poor rural areas.

The president says he is recovering from radiotherapy treatment after a February operation in Cuba to remove a tumor from his pelvis, though rumors persist that he has a fatal condition. The opposition is avoiding commenting on his health, which remains the wild card factor in the vote.

Capriles has opted for a down-to-earth manifesto emphasizing daily issues from childcare to jobs, while Chavez’s grandiose-sounding government plan ranges from continuing the “construction of socialism” to “saving the human race.”

“He wants to be the savior of the world but doesn’t say how he’s going to save Venezuelans’ lives,” said Briquet, referring to crime that tops surveys as Venezuelans’ biggest concern.

Chavez was set to launch a new campaign to beat crime later on Wednesday, reportedly including an eye-catching proposal to give money to victims. The president has already lavished billions on giveaways to single mothers, pensioners and others in the run-up to the vote.

Though the gap remains formidable, Capriles has been creeping up one or two points in recent weeks in polls. JPMorgan said on Tuesday that Chavez’s lead may have topped out.

“Capriles is rising because he is traveling across the country. While Capriles was in 12 states (in the last few days), mobbed by people, Chavez has made three TV speeches, hours of ‘chains’, forcing people to see him,” Briquet said.

“If they’re so confident, why doesn’t he (Chavez) accept a debate? Chavez has always said ‘an eagle doesn’t hunt a fly’, so why does he spend all day hunting Capriles?” he added, referring to the president’s recent torrent of insults against his rival.

(Editing by Brian Ellsworth and Jim Loney)

To read this article on the Chicago Tribune, please click here.

 
Jun
19
2012
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Chavez predicts big win in Venezuela election

The Chicago Tribune via Reuters
Marianna Parraga and Andrew Cawthorne
June 19, 2012

70554302 Chavez predicts big win in Venezuela election

Courtesy of: Reuters

CARACAS (Reuters) – Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez forecast he would win October’s election with more than 60 percent of the vote after a new poll showed on Tuesday he held a large lead over his opposition rival.

The survey taken in May by respected local pollster Datanalisis found that 43.6 percent of voters in the South American OPEC nation favored Chavez, versus 27.7 percent for the Democratic Unity coalition’s candidate, Henrique Capriles.

“The opposition know we are going to win the election. We have to win it by K.O. We are going to win the election with more than 60 percent of the votes,” Chavez said on state TV.

Chavez’s 15.9 point lead was slightly smaller than a 17.2-point margin in the previous month’s survey by Datanalisis.

The portion of undecided voters in the poll was a substantial 28.7 percent – bearing out analysts’ consensus that there is a lot left to play for.

The 57-year-old Chavez, who has been battling cancer for a year, remains popular in his 14th year in power due to his oil-financed welfare spending and his enduring emotional connection with the country’s poor majority.

But Capriles, 39, a state governor, is drawing big crowds on the campaign trail and exuding an image of youth and energy that he counts on to tip the balance come voting day on October 7.

The opposition candidate wants to end Chavez’s radical, statist policies and install a Brazilian-style “modern left” administration.

The Datanalisis survey was in line with most of the country’s best-known pollsters, who give Chavez a double-digit lead with less than four months remaining until the ballot.

“Almost 100 days now (before the vote),” Chavez said late on Tuesday. “A gap of 20 points … is impossible to reverse.”

Opinion polls are notoriously controversial in Venezuela. Both sides regularly accuse the companies that publish them of being biased and having political links.

“All the serious polls in this country, including one that is totally opposition, give Chavez an advantage of between 16 and 25 points,” Information Minister Andres Izarra told Reuters.

“And the campaign has still not started,” he added, referring to the formal July 1 beginning of the election race.

CANCER MYSTERY

A smaller phone survey conducted by Datanalisis after Chavez and Capriles formally registered their candidacies last week showed Chavez with 42.6 percent, and 28.8 percent for Capriles, a slightly narrower lead of 13.8 percent.

In a research note on Tuesday, JPMorgan said the latest polls would not change the market’s perception that Chavez remains the strong favorite to win the election, if he can run.

“That said, polls of all ilk seem to be showing Chavez’s lead over Capriles has stabilized, and in fact may be eroding on the margin,” it said.

“We now think voters are paying more attention, and going forward the market should pay more attention to the polls … Capriles has little time to waste, but we still think it is too early to rule out a more competitive landscape as we get closer to the vote.”

While Chavez appears to be in a strong position, analysts said the volatility of Venezuelan voters and the mystery over his health meant the 2012 presidential race was far from over.

After three operations to remove two cancerous tumors in the past year, and lengthy absences in Cuba for treatment, Chavez has returned to the public limelight in the past two weeks with regular appearances on state TV and in public.

Details of his condition remain a state secret.

Although he is not walking much in public, Chavez has insisted he is recovering and will crush Capriles on election day.

Capriles said some opinion polls were skewed and that his nationwide “house-by-house” campaign was gathering steam and putting him on course to unseat the socialist leader.

Both he and Chavez drew hundreds of thousands of supporters to the streets when they registered with the national election board earlier this month.

Another survey on Tuesday – by pollster Gis XXI, which is run by a former Chavez minister – also gave the president a healthy lead with 57.8 percent of voter intentions versus 23 percent for Capriles.

The two candidates sparred on Monday over the possibility of a face-to-face televised campaign debate.

Chavez said he would be “ashamed” to square off with a “non-entity” like Capriles, while the opposition standard-bearer said the president was better at insulting than debating.

(Writing by Andrew Cawthorne; Editing by Daniel Wallis and Peter Cooney)

To read this article on the Chicago Tribune, please click here.