Monthly Archives: October 2012

Oct
5
2012
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Survey Gives Edge to Chávez Opponent

The Wall Street Journal
October 5, 2012
By Kejal Vyas

OB UW131 1005ve G 20121005141618 Survey Gives Edge to Chávez Opponent

Courtesy of: Reuters

CARACAS—Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles has extended his lead over President Hugo Chávez in the latest survey released just days ahead of the hotly contested vote.

Venezuelans head to voting stations this Sunday in a race that is proving to be Mr. Chávez’s greatest challenge after nearly 14 years in office. The president has promised a deepening of his statist policies if he wins another six-year term. However, his campaign was slowed down over the past year as he battled an undisclosed type of cancer, which Mr. Chávez says he has overcome.

The survey conducted by local private pollster Consultores 21 found the challenger increasing his support to 51.8% while Mr. Chávez declined to 47.2%, according to Saul Cabrera, director of the firm. The survey was conducted as a vote simulation between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2 using 1,546 respondents. It had a margin of error of 2.5%.

Earlier this week, Mr. Cabrera said that his firm didn’t use telephone surveys because they found respondents hesitant to answer questions on political affiliation to unknown people. He said those surveys typically found the number of undecided voters shoot up past 20%.

Mr. Capriles, a 40-year-old energetic state governor, has embarked on an aggressive nationwide “house by house” tour since winning the opposition primaries in February. The center-left candidate has pledged to keep many of the social programs that Mr. Chávez spearheaded but says he wants to run them more efficiently and sees a greater role for the private sector in Venezuela’s economy.

Both candidates officially ended their campaigns on Thursday. Mr. Chávez delivered his final appeal to voters during a rain-soaked gathering of thousands of red-clad government supporters who filled the streets of downtown Caracas. Meanwhile, Mr. Capriles capped off his campaign with speeches in three western Venezuelan states.

Though Consultores 21 is one of only two pollsters calling for a close race, most surveys have shown Mr. Capriles closing the gap in recent months.

Venezuelan electoral laws prohibit the publication of polls in the week ahead of elections but Mr. Cabrera said their privately commissioned survey was made available only to clients.

Consultores 21′s last poll published in September had recorded Mr. Capriles leading with 48.9% while 45.7% supported Mr. Chávez. That survey was conducted using a secret ballot and gave Mr. Capriles a wider lead than a separate poll conducted by the firm using open questions, which showed the contender holding a one point advantage.

Venezuela’s political arena remains highly polarized and some critics have challenged the validity of polls.

Write to Kejal Vyas at [email protected]

To read this article on The Wall Street Journal, please click here.

 
Oct
5
2012
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ICYMI: Survey Gives Edge to Chávez Opponent

The Wall Street Journal
October 5, 2012
By Kejal Vyas

OB UW131 1005ve G 20121005141618 ICYMI: Survey Gives Edge to Chávez Opponent

Courtesy of: Reuters

CARACAS—Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles has extended his lead over President Hugo Chávez in the latest survey released just days ahead of the hotly contested vote.

Venezuelans head to voting stations this Sunday in a race that is proving to be Mr. Chávez’s greatest challenge after nearly 14 years in office. The president has promised a deepening of his statist policies if he wins another six-year term. However, his campaign was slowed down over the past year as he battled an undisclosed type of cancer, which Mr. Chávez says he has overcome.

The survey conducted by local private pollster Consultores 21 found the challenger increasing his support to 51.8% while Mr. Chávez declined to 47.2%, according to Saul Cabrera, director of the firm. The survey was conducted as a vote simulation between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2 using 1,546 respondents. It had a margin of error of 2.5%.

Earlier this week, Mr. Cabrera said that his firm didn’t use telephone surveys because they found respondents hesitant to answer questions on political affiliation to unknown people. He said those surveys typically found the number of undecided voters shoot up past 20%.

Mr. Capriles, a 40-year-old energetic state governor, has embarked on an aggressive nationwide “house by house” tour since winning the opposition primaries in February. The center-left candidate has pledged to keep many of the social programs that Mr. Chávez spearheaded but says he wants to run them more efficiently and sees a greater role for the private sector in Venezuela’s economy.

Both candidates officially ended their campaigns on Thursday. Mr. Chávez delivered his final appeal to voters during a rain-soaked gathering of thousands of red-clad government supporters who filled the streets of downtown Caracas. Meanwhile, Mr. Capriles capped off his campaign with speeches in three western Venezuelan states.

Though Consultores 21 is one of only two pollsters calling for a close race, most surveys have shown Mr. Capriles closing the gap in recent months.

Venezuelan electoral laws prohibit the publication of polls in the week ahead of elections but Mr. Cabrera said their privately commissioned survey was made available only to clients.

Consultores 21′s last poll published in September had recorded Mr. Capriles leading with 48.9% while 45.7% supported Mr. Chávez. That survey was conducted using a secret ballot and gave Mr. Capriles a wider lead than a separate poll conducted by the firm using open questions, which showed the contender holding a one point advantage.

Venezuela’s political arena remains highly polarized and some critics have challenged the validity of polls.

Write to Kejal Vyas at [email protected]

To read this article on The Wall Street Journal, please click here.

 
Oct
5
2012
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In Case You Missed It… Articles Roundup Week of 10/5/12

venezuela In Case You Missed It… Articles Roundup Week of 10/5/12

Courtesy of: AFP / Stringer

This Sunday’s Venezuelan election promises to have an impact far beyond the borders of Venezuela, defining not only the legacy of President Hugo Chávez, but also the future of his political movement in Latin America. It appears increasingly likely that opposition candidate Henrique Capriles can defeat Chávez, thanks to a strong finish to his campaign, while the normally vibrant Chávez has stumbled across the finish line. The supposed successes of Chávez’s policies have come under increased scrutiny lately, and evidence of massive government mismanagement and failed social programs is disillusioning Venezuelans. The country has given away money and oil to Cuba and Iran, among others, and these programs would likely be the first to go should Chávez lose. This is exciting investors, who are betting on a Capriles victory in hopes that he will rescue the oil industry and the country’s economy, dramatically increasing the value of its bonds. Regardless of the election’s outcome, the victor will face the difficult task of solving many deep-seated problems in the country, the result of years of waste and neglect.

Venezuelan elections about more than Hugo Chavez’s legacy, CNN

You can find the ideological divide in Venezuela at almost any gas station. A Hummer rolls in and fills up for just $2 and its owner gives a thumbs-up.

Trading Places, New York Times

With just three days to go in what is shaping up to be an extremely close race for the Venezuelan presidency, the campaign seems to have entered Bizarro World.

Massive Rally in Venezuela Underscores Opposition’s Electoral Strength, ABC News

On Sunday morning, rivers of people waving flags headed towards downtown Caracas, to see a speech by Venezuelan opposition candidate Henrique Capriles.

Huge Venezuela housing shortage an election worry, Business Recorder

Inside the garage of a Caracas shopping center, hundreds of families live in cubicle-like rooms, waiting for President Hugo Chavez to deliver on his promise to give every Venezuelan “dignified” housing.

What the visiting media won’t see when they come to Venezuela, Foreign Policy

With just 10 days to go to Venezuela’s presidential election on October 7, foreign media interest is just starting to pick up. But there’s one question that never fails to crop up: “Has Chávez really improved the lives of the poor?”

Venezuelan vote a high-stakes affair for Chavez allies, Chicago Tribune

Pedro Alvarez, who drives one of the thousands of ancient American cars that serve as taxis in Cuba, cannot bring himself to think about life without Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Venezuela’s Capriles vows to help Colombia, cool ties with Iran, Reuters

Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles pledged to help C olombia in its peace talks with rebels and distance himself from Iran should he defeat President Hugo Chavez in an increasingly tight race ahead of Sunday’s election.

What could Venezuela vote mean for its oil industry?, Reuters

Chavez, 58, is seeking a new six-year term and accuses opposition challenger Henrique Capriles, a 40-year-old state governor, of seeking to reverse his self-styled socialist revolution.

Election test for Venezuela bond fans, Reuters

Investors who have been buying up Venezuelan bonds in hopes of an opposition victory in this weekend’s presidential election will be heartened by the results of a poll from Consultores 21 which shows Henrique Capriles having the edge on incumbent Hugo Chavez.

Uncertainty looms for victor in Venezuela, Financial Times

Several years ago, not quite halfway through his 14-year presidency, Hugo Chávez bought a new presidential jet. The $65m Airbus A319 had extravagant white leather interiors, paintings of national heroes hung on the cabin walls and folding seat-back trays with gold hinges. Critics of the Venezuelan president immediately dubbed it “the plane of shame”.