Jul
5
2012
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Who’s Next Venezuela: Another Potential Successor

Over the past several months, What’s Next Venezuela has reported on the uncertainty surrounding Hugo Chávez’s health, including the speculation about who will take Chávez’s place on the ballot should he be unable to stand for re-election on October 7. We continue examining potential successors today, with a profile of Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro.

Nicolás Maduro, Foreign Minister

Nicolas Maduro Who’s Next Venezuela: Another Potential Successor

Courtesy of: AVN

From lowly beginnings as a bus driver for political campaigns, Nicolas Maduro has risen to power and influence as the Foreign Minister in Hugo Chávez’s administration and a leading candidate to succeed the president.

Since June 2011, around the time Venezuelans first learned of Chávez’s cancer, Maduro has emerged as one of Chávez’s closest officials and advisors, both in Cuba and in Venezuela, and the one in charge of announcing the president’s messages to the Venezuelan public. He took a leading role after Chávez announced his intent to leave the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), voicing accusations against the IACHR and making headlines while Chávez received treatment in Cuba. Speculation intensified earlier this year as rumors swirled that Chávez was poised to name Maduro as Venezuela’s new Vice President.

That Chávez trusts Maduro with his most important assignments is corroborated by a Wikileaks cable which suggests Maduro may be at the top of the list because of his fierce loyalty to Chávez. The two have a long history, going back to the founding of the PSUV and Maduro’s work on Chávez’s 1998 presidential campaign. Maduro has already spent six years as chancellor, an unprecedentedly long spell in Chávez’s administration.

The leaked e-mail also asserts that Maduro is a more pragmatic leader than others in the PSUV, which might be necessary to keep the party from fracturing during the transition. It may help him to prevent infighting within the PSUV, which could cause serious problems in addition to any opposition challenges the transition leader will face.

Moreover, through the foreign ministry, Maduro has become the darling of Havana, establishing strong ties with the Castros. This may be critical, as recent news stories have shown that maintaining the relationship between Venezuela and the Castros will be a key expectation of any Chávez successor.

He has popular appeal as well, and charisma that technocrat Elias Jaua lacks. He has fared better than other PSUV members in polls when pitted against opposition candidate Henrique Capriles, although he would still have to make up a significant gap in just a few short months. Meanwhile, Maduro’s profile within Venezuela has continued to grow as he routinely appears both in pictures and videos next to the president, both in Cuba and during the recent announcement of Chávez’s signature new labor law.

However, several things indicate that Maduro may not be the chosen one. Many argue that although he has gained international approval needed to be president, he has not done the same within his own party. He is also untested in close elections; his only electoral victory was in a 2005 legislative race in which he ran unopposed.

In fact, many analysts believe that Maduro’s best shot at the presidency came last year when Chávez first got sick. He quickly took charge of the leadership of Venezuela. Now it appears that he is slated to run for governor of Carabobo, a state now run by a member of the MUD. Maduro himself has even denied that he is being considered as a successor to Chávez.

For his part, Maduro argues that the majority of Venezuelans will reelect Chávez on October 7. Should Chávez’s health take a turn for the worst, however, we may yet learn if he is as trusted as the Wikileaks cable claims.

 
Apr
19
2012
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Former Venezuelan Judge Suggests Drug Trafficking By Government Officials

Typically, when international experts, foreign governments and Venezuelan citizens talk about the rising crime in Venezuela, it’s in regard to the rampant violence that has made the country as dangerous as some conflict zones. Even the U.S. State Department has warned citizens traveling to Venezuela of the purported dangers. However, more and more, the governments in both the U.S. and Venezuela are turning their attention to the “worrying trends” emerging in Venezuela’s illegal narcotics trade.

Now, a former Venezuelan judge has suggested to U.S. investigators that prominent figures in Venezuela’s government are involved in drug trafficking operations.

In testimony given before the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) on Tuesday, Eladio Aponte Aponte, a former judge of the Supreme Court of Venezuela, has implied that senior officers of the armed forces and even leaders of the Chávez government are complicit in drug trafficking operations.

According to one source, Aponte said the drug trafficking operations are run directly by Henry Rangel Silva, the Venezuelan Minister of Defense; General Cliver Alcalá, commander of the Fourth Armored Division of the Army; and Diosdado Cabello, president of the National Assembly and one of President Hugo Chávez’s closest allies.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of Treasury Department was already aware of Alcalá’s and Silva’s alleged links to drug trafficking and terrorist organizations.

aponte Former Venezuelan Judge Suggests Drug Trafficking By Government Officials

Aponte arrived in the U.S. from Costa Rica, where he had been since Apr. 2. He was himself implicated in the drug conspiracy, and was dismissed as a judge on March 20 for alleged ties to accused trafficker Walid Makled. His whereabouts between his dismissal from the Supreme Court and his appearance in Costa Rica remain unknown.

The National Assembly removed Aponte from office after documents found in Makled’s apartment showed ties to the judge. Aponte gave Makled credentials that gave him access to court offices and the freedom to move around the country without restriction.

Makled is currently on trial in Caracas. He was extradited to Venezuela from Columbia after a series of diplomatic negotiations.

According to reports released by WikiLeaks, the Venezuelan military exerted pressure on Chávez to prevent Makled from being tried in the U.S. Senior army officers reportedly fear that Makled — who has already told media that senior army officers were directly involved in drug transport — might testify that the Venezuelan military aided his drug trafficking operation.

Economic issues often garner the most attention during an election season. But in this election year in Venezuela, crime is an equally important issue for most Venezuelans. If proven true, these alleged connections between the government’s top officials and narcotics trafficking could adversely impact the PSUV, who very well could lose the high ground in the debate about crime.

 
Mar
9
2012
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In Case You Missed It… Articles Roundup Week of 3/9/12

In this week’s roundup… Hugo Chávez reveals that his recently removed tumor was cancerous; Chávez supporters open fire on a rally for opposition candidate Henrique Capriles; Venezuela’s Jewish community slams the Chávez administration for anti-Semitic attacks against Capriles. Venezuela’s foreign debt rises 90 percent in just three years; the Inter American Press Association (IAPA) condemns Venezuela’s Supreme Court decision to uphold a $2.18 million fine against Globovisión.  Venezuela continues to send aid to embattled Syrian leader Bashar Assad; Chávez’s relationship with Ahmadinejad deepens, as reports surface that Iran will provide Chávez’s army with unmanned drones.

Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez says new tumor was cancerous in 1st TV appearance in 9 days, The Washington Post via the Associated Press

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez revealed Sunday that a new tumor recently removed from his pelvic region was of the same type of cancer as a baseball-sized growth extracted from that part of his body about eight months ago.

The man who could be Venezuela’s next president — if the Chavistas let him, Foreign Policy

Venezuela President Hugo Chávez’s disclosure that his cancer has recurred raises hard questions about his ability to campaign for re-election in October. If he lacks the stamina or is incapacitated, what happens next — will fair elections proceed, or will his ruling circle frustrate any potential transfer of power?

In Venezuela, Election Won’t Inspire Stability, The Wall Street Journal

In Venezuela’s increasingly unpredictable presidential election, voters face more than a choice between competing ideologies. They must also weigh which candidate represents the best hope of staving off political and social upheaval.

Venezuela Opposition Presidential Candidate Capriles Rally Attacked by Gunmen (VIDEO), Latin American Herald

Red shirted supporters of left-wing Venezuela President Hugo Chávez fired shots at a crowd of opposition supporters gathered for a rally with opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski.

Jews hit out at Venezuelan government, The Jewish Chronicle

The Jewish community in Venezuela has denounced the attack by the state media on Henrique Capriles. An article published on the Venezuelan State Radio website entitled The Enemy is Zionism criticised Mr. Capriles’s Jewish ancestry.

What’s going on at PDVSA? The Financial Times

Do the ends justify the means for PDVSA, Venezuela’s state oil company? The ends at least are clear enough: to keep afloat Hugo Chávez’s revolution, which in turn depends on the well-being of PDVSA, one of the world’s biggest oil companies that doubles up as the Venezuelan president’s piggy bank.

Venezuela’s operating reserves sink to lowest level in 15 years, El Universal

Though rising oil prices drive in petrodollars, Venezuela’s operating reserves, that is, currency deposited with banks for imports and foreign-debt payments, have plummeted to their lowest level in 15 years.

In three years, Venezuela’s foreign debt grew 90%, El Universal

In 2009, drop in oil prices led the Venezuelan government to borrow to cover the oil revenue gap and, although the barrel price recovered in the following years, the government has continued to issue further debt.

WikiLeaks report cites corruption in Venezuela production, The Miami Herald

The destruction of Venezuelan production in favor of imports is worsening the scarcity problem and creating corruption by those who want to obtain bigger contracts, says a report by the private intelligence firm Stratfor released by WikiLeaks.

IAPA condemns high court ratification of fine on Globovisión, El Universal

The Inter American Press Association (IAPA) on Thursday strongly condemned the ratification by Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) of a fine meted out to private TV news channel Globovisión, calling the rejection of its appeal “a reprisal and censorship of freedom of information

Venezuela to ship more fuel to Syria as crackdown spreads, Reuters

Venezuela is readying a third shipment of diesel to the government of Syria even as President Bashar al-Assad intensifies a crackdown against protesters, said a Venezuelan lawmaker on Monday.

Southern Exposure: Iran, Terror Groups Setting Up Shop in South America, U.S. News

Iran and Middle East-based extremist groups are stepping up their activities in South America, aiming to make friends and score cash, a senior U.S. military official says. Tehran intends to build military drones in Washington’s backyard for the Venezuelan military led by Hugo Chávez, U.S. Southern Command chief Gen. Douglas Fraser told reporters Wednesday during a breakfast meeting in Washington.